www.public4you.fora.pl

px941934

How to deal with inflation, the reproducibility of the phantom

Since 2008, China was just sort out a prospect of a solution to inflation, deflation came; not the end of deflation,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], inflation also fell.
even into the traditional low season of July and August, Chongqing's property market is still continuing with 旺势. One morning early in August, the first CBD Jiefangbei in Chongqing, a real estate, thousands of people crowded at the sales center, restless waiting for the opening.
Open just over an hour, the real estate Kuangxiao 50 sets.
However, according to the sales staff statistics, local home buyers accounted for less than half of the unexpected is actually playing the main foreign customer. The location excellent, a huge real estate appreciation of space, naturally became Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang in the vicinity of the eyes of real estate off the meat and potatoes. Some people have bought them 7 sets of breath.
2008 years, China's macroeconomic like riding a roller coaster - just sort out a prospect of a solution to inflation, deflation came; not the end of deflation, inflation and to come.

inflation really want to come? The surge in credit

2008 年 10 月 U.S. financial crisis, a sudden shift of monetary policy, the central bank cut deposit and lending rates several times and removed the control of commercial bank lending . Then, the domestic commercial bank credit to explode. First half of 2009, the new RMB loans reached 7.4 trillion yuan, in 2008, the year the figure was only 4.9 trillion yuan. Not only rapid credit growth far exceeded the annual increase of credit 2006,2007, but also beyond this year's
According to the definition of inflation, as long as the money supply increased by more than the actual needs of the economy, there is the risk of inflation. So in the first half as high as 7.4 trillion yuan, over the scale of RMB loans still why did not raise prices? One reason
increase in money supply and price increases have a transfer process that takes some time. The second is to determine whether the inflation, not just look at the prices of products and services, depends on the price of financial assets. When the money supply increase, if the financial assets absorbed most of the incremental money, of course, will not see price increases. Once a financial asset bubble burst, inflation will soon emerge.
as a barometer of the economy, the stock market reaction to bear the brunt. The first half of 2009, China's stock market can be described as The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen
into that from the point of view, as of mid-July, Shanghai and Shenzhen this year, has surged more than 70%, respectively, and 100%, over a thousand stocks to achieve the price doubled , hundreds of stock prices hit a record high. During the current round of stock market prices, the Shanghai index points from 2000 to 3000 spent over 5 months time, and the bull market gain in the same time is rather used to, but now the number of outstanding shares in 2006 and 2007 The number of beginning of the year is quite different.
7 月 6 日 Shanghai and Shenzhen trading volume exceeded 3,000 billion yuan, while turnover in the last two cities more than 3,000 billion yuan, will have to be traced back to the last round before the stock market peaked in 2007 on October 12. July 20 is a breakthrough in the turnover of the two cities 3,500 billion.
in a shot to the stock market
easy credit in the banking context, the local government has started a Some local government officials, said: Now is a golden opportunity. Where can seize this opportunity to get more credit from the bank, which can be found where rapid economic development of the local way.
local government This will not only expand the scale of assets, can also be used as collateral, and an important source of future earnings.
real estate market suddenly changed, and is closely related to the financing of this madness. In this case, the local government platform in order to ensure smooth flow of finance to be a variety of reasons to push up or push up prices, so that the real estate market is not in accordance with the intrinsic nature of the market to adjust, the real estate market supply and demand distortions.
If a large number of real estate investors through highly leveraged bank credit into the real estate market, may well be in a very short period of time pushed up the real estate market prices. Once the real estate market is not the intrinsic nature of the market to adjust, then, the real estate market bubble is inevitable. the king's madness

2009 年 8 11, National Bureau of Statistics released in July of macroeconomic data, CPI (Consumer Price Index) fell 1.8%, large 1.7% at 6 month, has been since February of this year for 6 consecutive months of decline. PPI (producer price index) fell 8.2%, a decline compared with 0.4 percent in June, the 8th consecutive month of decline.
macroeconomic data suggests the recovery of the economy: retail sales of social consumer goods grew 15.2%, large-scale industrial added value increased 10.8%, which indicates that in July the Chinese economy remains good steady rise of the trend. The decline in both the CPI and PPI, compared with appropriate monetary policy to support economic recovery and create favorable conditions.
CPI and PPI seems to explain the decline, inflation is still far away from us. But is this really so?
2009 年 6 30, the After 97 intense outcry, with state of the party in the background to 4.06 billion yuan of the total Xing, 1.45 yuan / square meter of floor price, competing in this block. Guangqu 15 to also become the highest land price in Beijing this year.
you know, year and a half ago in January 2008, Guangqu 15 to open tender, the result of competitive bidding requirements of developers fail to rule over the three, and hit bids. It has also become the depth adjustment of the real estate market into one of the landmark event. Since then, there have 流拍 land across the country, back to sweeping the country.
Today, the land remains in the doldrums the market suddenly pick up, adjust the depth of the throes of the real estate market has not completely healed, the land developers mad scramble scene, have to reproduce again. Since entering the mid-2009, the new
Pan Shiyi of And Some time ago resulted in the release of bank credit awash with liquidity, which gives a lot of real estate enterprises to hoard money.
5 months, the Beijing opening of the project almost all of the new improved prices. Such as the International Centre will be the first city raised the average price of 300 yuan / square meter, average transaction price has been close to 15,000 yuan / square meter. CITIC City raised the price of 21,800 yuan / square meter, after the real estate transaction price is about 18,000 yuan / square meter.
this round of stock and property market prices for the new round of inflation began. The food basket in the CPI in statistics, accounting for a large proportion, so there is no apparent current CPI performance. China's inflation is usually the first area from the beginning of assets, and asset price bubble will bring to the Chinese people actually inflationary pressures.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke's bailout plan has been very successful in the global investors expect deflation into inflation expectations. The surge in commodity prices, not based on the improvement of economic fundamentals, but on the prospects for the dollar. The expected depreciation of the dollar itself will push up the price of oil, and when banks start lending again, deflationary pressure will soon become inflationary pressure. U.S. dollar is the currency denominated commodities, which will lead to many countries, such as China in particular, depends on energy imports in the country, faced with a new input-style inflation.
domestic credit soared causing excess liquidity, international capital flows in the second half of this year and may again reverse and become hot. Excess liquidity at home and abroad superposition of the two stocks together, the asset bubble will be blowing the greater the inflation Phantom of the Opera will be step by step approaching.

pace of inflation, inflation in the Phantom of the Opera has created a fear of people.
last month to counter purchase of foreign exchange transfer money to customers in small groups, and speak with one voice to say that the recent inflationary pressure, may not stand, and if you do not buy a house, So afraid to hand the money so no more. In the bank, Mr. Zhou said: shrinking a lot of business.
CPI and PPI data, both fell, inflation can no longer hide the fact that close.
link:
hikes, also known as the delayed impact, is to calculate the ratio of price index over the same period in the unique, rising commodity prices last year the price index for the next year effects. If a commodity price of 6 months prior to 1995 are 0.5 yuan per kg, up to 1 yuan in July, up to December 1996 remain the same price, although prices remained stable in 1996, but worked out before 1996 6 months than the price index over the same period was 200%, indicating that prices doubled, and this is the commodity price index in the hikes, the prices of the previous year in July on the first half of next year lagged price index impact.
CPI straight down year on year mainly due to the high base last year, hikes impact on the outcome, it is July and August last year, when the high prices. July hikes this year, down CPI1.4 percentage points.
PPI's down mainly due to: the world economic downturn and global excess capacity, declining demand for industrial goods makes it difficult in the short term trend reversal.
can not be overlooked: from the analysis of the chain, since March this year, CPI chain were flat in July for the first time; the PPI chain since April has been rising continuously since 4 months, 4 ~ 7 January were up 0.2%, 0.1%, 0.3% and 0.1%.
With the weakening of the second half of hikes, the price runs to bottoming out, mainly due to the following:
First of all, the total demand recovery will reverse the downward trend in prices. China's economy has stabilized to pick up, companies
Second, pork and other food prices have entered the upward cycle. Department of Agriculture data show that by the end of July the price of pork was 14.94 yuan per kilogram, has been rising for eight weeks, before rising higher than 11.3%. In addition, the recent heavy rainfall and other seasonal factors, increased transportation and storage costs, may also lead to rising prices of vegetables and other agricultural products.
Finally, the expected depreciation of the dollar caused by imported inflation pressure gradually increased. International commodity prices continued to rise, will increase the cost of transfer to the domestic production of PPI and CPI. According to the Ministry of Commerce on July 15 published data, monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce of production of 112 kinds of important general level of prices in June rose 1.5% qoq, as last year, the first increase since August. Including energy, metals, mineral products, ferrous metals and building materials chain were up 2% to 7% range.
economic operations in accordance with this trend, CPI should increase year on year in January this year, 11,12, is low in a steady state. The real inflation will come next year, commodity price forecasts in the case of more moderate estimate of next year's CPI will rise 3.5% year on year, if radical, this figure will be 5%.

terrible than inflation, but inflation fears.

people's psychological state of an impact on the economy. When there is a strong all the time inflation expectations, then this is expected to be back to influence people's behavior, people's buying will be further pulled up the price. Phantom of inflation to reproduce. We must recognize that in the process of economic operation is normal and moderate inflation, and it is an objective existence. The modest inflation is on the whole economy can bear. However, there are moderate inflation into hyperinflation possible.