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T213 numerical forecast products in Ningxia in 2003 during the first soaking rain the application of weather

South, the middle south, east three lower order to establish and maintain air flow,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and in the eastern to the southern region of Ningxia, was formed in the low-level wind field, moisture convergence, to promote water vapor, heat and the rapid transfer of energy instability and the concentration of energy caused the uplift of moist unstable, so that the rainfall in the east to south-class larger. By the author of several precipitation processes analysis, T213 numerical forecast products stroke field prediction, precipitation forecast for our region there is a strong indication to. 4 Summary (1) large-scale circulation of precipitation is in the context of certain produce. The soaking rain the weather is stable at high and low altitude, trigger mechanism,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], low eddy by the Department of the precipitation level was significantly increased. (2) Ningxia Meteorological Observatory of the soaker process accurately forecast,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], largely due to the T213 numerical forecast products. Analysis showed that initial moment of T213 in different forecasting more consistent, its physical precipitation forecast fields of my ability and have good implications for forecasting and prediction of time with the shortening, but their credibility has been improving, especially is a trend forecast and wind forecast. (3) times the previous diagram the fact less common in Europe a long time numerical prediction intervals,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and few varieties, some affected systems are often shallow and fleeting, so forecasters difficult to capture and grasp the process easily lead to empty the weather report, omitted. The 13 prediction interval is short, time length, variety, 6h from the ground to a high-level numerical analysis of each forecast map,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], make up for this shortcoming, and thus also to a certain extent, solve the rainfall in time, intensity, regional and other issues. (4) With the continuous development of numerical weather prediction, has greatly improved the accuracy of its products, extend the time available, the daily forecast on the benefit. But the numerical prediction products inevitably error (analytical error, model error), elements of a relatively low level of prediction can not be directly used for weather forecasting. Faced with these rich and wide variety of forecast products and how to use technology using a variety of interpretation of numerical prediction method to fully tap the valuable information products to improve daily forecast, especially in severe weather forecasting accuracy is the urgent subject. 3 Chan Khon! In! C Ji Huang Kui plastic Ningxia in 2003 during the first soaking rain the application of weather analysis 37TheApplicationofT213NumericalPredictionProductintheFirstSoakingRainProcessOccurringinNingxiain2003ZHOUHu, JIXiao-ling2, DINGJian-jun1 (1.NingxiaMetecrologicalO [~ ervatory, Y'mchuan750002, ��: 2.KeyLaboratcxyofMeteorologicalDisasterPreheatingandRedudnginNingxia , Yinchuan750002, Chim): 0nroutineweathermaterialsandT213numericalpredicticnproduct, themaininfluencesyst hoe andthephcalquailtiespredictionfieldrelatedtoT213numericalforecastofthefirstll ��ingrainprocesswhichoccurred0nMay5to6in2003'mNiIawereanalyzedinthispaper �� TheresultsshowthatT213hasexcellentpredicticnabilityanddirectiontotheppita. tioninNingxia, anditscredibilityisimprovingoonstantlywithsl ~ rteningoftheforecastprepti0n. Keywords: thefLrstscansrain; influencesystem; T213numericalpredictionproduct