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Room city sells dish will " jump out "
-- write in individual housing to make over policy of business tax privilege to stop
I was written yesterday " when does house price inflection point come " one article, speak of current estate market, be faced with secondhand the room trades the major test that policy of business tax privilege exits. But, because adjust estate policy actively to showing a government to be not valued, I think of favourable policy exit what only 5 is become to hold.
Take seriously photograph become known, all guessing collapse of itself, 5 into became finally 10 into. On December 9 afternoon, standing conference transmits the State Council message, the decision transfers individual housing business tax to ask for avoid time limit to be restored by 2 years.
This message makes clear, connect the administration high level of real estate of almost unconditional support, be acclaimed to estate and tremble with fear of spurt in prices. The heavyweight spokesman of estate business -- Mei Sheng of Nie of chairman of chamber of commerce of estate of countrywide business association also is turned over recently consistent " sing much " the practice of house price, think to continue to let house price violent wind rise not desirable, make a person afraid.
The fact makes clear, current China is big in estate bubble of the city, had exceeded Japanese estate to die dish the high point before -- no matter from house price hire of price of income comparing, house is compared, empty buy rate, and the price of housing and office building is hanged wait for a respect to look,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], current Chinese house price, among the bubble that already was in reach the limit.
It is bubble cracked of regular meeting, but the key is with what kind of means burst! If say enlighten do obeisance to Xiaoguo of this exceeding rich and popular with an unique whole world, house price is breaking down under the absolute level of Beijing, Shanghai disintegrate, price of house of region of that part center already exceeded Tokyo, ground all GDP yields the big Shanghai of insufficient Tokyo 1/20, what qualification hold together is there is the whole world at present highest one of house price cities position?
Now, the information that comes from administration makes clear, they do not hope house price is fried again tall,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], they want to control one ahull a place difficult of access. Then, on the giant bubble that administration breeds meticulously in oneself personally, plunged into a pinprick. According to their expect, be in namely bubble does not narrow slowly below cracked circumstance, obtain a good position that looks in them.
After policy comes out, the Chen Guojiang of institute of Beijing University estate comments on pair of room city not to act well instantly, I see his or really " grouse " , or is in namely to fry a boost one's courage; And the funny opinion on public affairs that the Hu Jinghui that I love my home gave out this policy to decide the lock price of chip of a few sales, house to will rise accordingly even, I look actually he is to be in period of gold of distressed intermediary course of study no longer, he is in leader of clapperclaw the State Council!
This policy makes clear, the State Council does not hope estate market continues to fry went down, this gave real-estate speculator an unusually clear shipment signal. On the history of reforming and opening, can rely on hype to get rich, all without exception is to comply with the word of the party those people -- the party lets you fry you, can earn money certainly; The party did not let you fry, continue to acclaim, have blind lane only apparently.
So I predict, arrive more than 20 days of year end next, it is alarmed fry the home to use policy evening to flock the period of shipment. These fry the home to arrive no longer over there open trade mill source, open trade will not see these the most determined clients in very long time. If say before two days to be in city of a gleam of, sell the home to cast give secondhand room source, can more than 20 buy the home to fool grab, so next a week, it is OK to sell the home mushroom deals with these more than 20 to buy the home to 10, and buy the home to stem from hesitation, likelihood remnant is less than 10. Such, "Price is high not anxious " sell the home, face awkward situation of man-to-man rich play chess very quickly, and this buys the home much a pair " terrified " , " doubt " eye, prepare at any time from sell the home " angst " in panting, escape.
So, I special envy those are in enlighten do obeisance to have lost capital money, turn and peddle in Beijing Shanghai the lukewarm city businessmen of the building, how do they have so good dog excrement fortune, exit before policy of business tax privilege is exited. And in each days when begin from now, sell the home to be able to discover one day comparing one day to sell hard -- they had missed period of optimal work off actually.
The competition from the back, will be to sell the home the competition between, and the likelihood that buy the home there is few visitors. Such building city, the arrival of inflection point will be very rapid, likelihood a month, likely also two months.
Pinnacled deeply cold top, need only at a heat, possible this " mirage " blow; If my " to declare war of tall house price " one book early a bit comes out, I have confidence to use the conduct propaganda of a book, give it this bubble complete disclose is broken -- because bubble jumps over wall of big, ball thinner,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the force of little, can let its crumble.
Since be the bubble that active disclose defeats the State Council, they planned policy of form a complete set certainly, prevent house price to drop cannot check. Such looking, house price dropped 2010, can be only germinant; True deep drop, should be in 2011 and 2012, of this period drop, administration have no alternative.
Next more perplex administration, will be Spring Festival around of the food price that is a delegate with oil of vegetable, edible, non-staple food, commissariat rise substantially problem. Of food price rise considerably, will make in the center of cannot city of room of give attention to two or morethings appears burst apart hidden trouble, and be pushed considerably in CPI below high case, administration is forced to implement measurable and constrictive monetary policy even, room city will accordingly more one disaster after another -- having a meal the crisis and keep estate growth is both between, the government abandons estate will rationally the tumour of economy of China of this one kidnap and culprit.
Common saying says, grow what sapling to written guarantee what fruit, try to rely on estate bubble compose to build Chinese economy to grow blue print, final final result goes over there won't good.
Those hopes send the people of ill-gotten wealth even through buying a room to maintain value rise in value, below the policy that the government is forced to tighten up fluidity, will be faced with daily devalue several yuan miserable condition -- of course, fortune of the people of the whole country changes place to need this kind devalues equably.
So, those who have housing is put in the hand, the most rational now choice, sell namely piece, sell a resell to go out, if somebody is willing to receive dish, I am willing to represent a the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, award him " example of new century vivid Lei Feng " title, pay the greatest revolution with high respect to him. Relevant Information：

[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]

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