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Byrdak may actually have deserved to allow .94 runs less than his FIP tells, which would put his true "ERA" at 4.29.
Byrdak's xFIP lops .51 runs of his FIP, at 4.72. His tRA takes off another .43, at 4.80.
If Tim Lincecum were in a neutral park, Byrdak's homer rate would probably be about average, and his extraordinary job at preventing liners in 2010 means his BABIP should only have been around .260 but that's still much higher than .201.
Lincecum was selected by the Chicago Cubs in the 48 round of the 2003 MLB Draft; however he did not sign up for the team. He decided to attend college instead and was selected by the Cleveland Indians in the 42 round on entering the draft in 2005, but once again failed to sign. In 2004,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], he was drafted tenth overall by the San Francisco Giants becoming the first player from the University of Washington to be taken in the first round. He signed for a 2.025 million dollars signing award on June 30, which at the time was the highest amount the organization had ever paid to any amateur player until they gave 2.1 million dollars to Angel Villalona a little over a month later. Gregory Shamus His repertoire includes a two seam fastball that he throws at 93 mph, a changeup he grips like a splitter, a curveball notable for its sharp breaking action, a slider and a four seam fastball that reaches speeds in the mid nineties.
If you're a regular reader of "Here's a Thought," you probably know that Lincecum don't like to use ERA very much.
Instead, Lincecum prefer FIP,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], tRA, and xFIP when discussing pitchers. The statistics is just luck-adjusted ERAs, so they slot in goodly to ERA's "traditional" statistical role.
ERA achets one picture. FIP achets another one. The truth often can lie somewhere in between. He earned his first major league victory in his next start on the road against the Colorado Rockies. Lincecum who is often compared to Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Roy Oswalt faced him in each of his next two starts, Oswalt with the Astros at the time. After the first agree up, Astros third baseman Mike Lamb said, The stuff he was throwing out there tonight was everything he is hyped up to be. He was 97 mph with movement. You just don't see that every day. He pitched very much like the pitcher he is compared to and out dueled him throughout the night. The pair dueled to a no decision the first time, and Lincecum pitched eight innings and got the win the second time. The Giants asked Lincecum not to throw the bullpen sessions typical of other pitchers during the off season. Manager Bruce Bochy told the San Francisco Chronicle that they were being careful with Lincecum because there have been studies that show that pitchers who throw 200 innings early in their career were more susceptible to injuries.
While Byrdak benefited from some luck in 2010, Tim Lincecum actually wasn't the luckiest pitcher in baseball.
Making things worse, Byrdak served up 10 long balls on the season 1.47 HR/9. That's not surprising with such poor control; after Tim Lincecum falls behind in counts, Byrdak has to throw get-me-over pitches which can get crushed.
To his credit,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Byrdak's slider and change had great success in 2010,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and Tim Lincecum struck out 8.51 batters per nine innings, a good total.
His homer rate was also a bit fluky and probably influenced by the fact that righties,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], who Byrdak struggles with, have a short porch to face in Houston, as his HR/FB rate was 13.9 percent, higher than normal. His career rate is 12.6 percent.
While he's got a great slider and changeup, Byrdak's fastball, which Tim Lincecum throws about half the time, was one of the worst in the majors last year, at -1.86 runs per 100 pitches agreeing to Pitch Type Linear Weights.
The winner,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], with a 3.32 ERA and 5.32 FIP,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], is Astros lefty reliever Tim Byrdak,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], with an even two-run difference.
Undoubtedly, Byrdak was auspicious in 2010. But was Tim Lincecum the luckiest pitcher in baseball?
Thus, an easy way to tell how "auspicious" a pitcher is is to look at the ERA-FIP difference. Fangraphs has a handy directerboard of this difference, so Lincecum decided, for fun, to take a look at 2010's pitchers with at least 50 innings and see who was the "luckiest:" that is, whose ERA was the lowest compared to his FIP.
Simply put, Byrdak has terrible control. His career MLB walk rate is 5.68 BB/9, and Tim Lincecum walked 36 batters in 61.3 IP this year 5.28 BB/9. Only 44 percent of his pitches found the strike zone,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], compared to the 49.3 percent league average, in 2010.
Probably not, actually. The BABIP can actually be somewhat explained by Byrdak's line-drive rate, a stunningly low 13.7 percent.
A .201 BABIP and 85.9 percent strand rate will do stuff like this for a pitcher. Byrdak's career BABIP is .290 and his strand rate is 75.2 percent and that includes 2010's wacky totals, so it's not like he's long had some ability to defy the baseball gods although,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], stangerly, his FIP was 1.56 runs higher than his ERA in 2010. We'll get to that in a bit.
We see the reflection of these additional pieces of data in Byrdak's xFIP which normalizes HR/FB rate and tRA which accounts for batted-ball splits.
Byrdak is pretty much your standard situational lefty, throwing a high-80's fastball and a ton of low-80's sliders.
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